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THE KOREAN PENINSULA UNIFICATION TRAJECTORIES Insights from Poland and Germany

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Autor: Kozłowski Krzysztof Klaus Stuwe
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THE KOREAN PENINSULA UNIFICATION TRAJECTORIES Insights from Poland and Germany
THE KOREAN PENINSULA UNIFICATION TRAJECTORIES Insights from Poland and Germany

 

The presented collection of articles correlating the Polish-German reconciliation experiences with the situation in the Korean Peninsula, is a fruit of scholarly passion of researchers of Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt (KU), Germany, and of Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), Poland, and other researchers invited to join the Project. The goal of the publication is to provide readers with an insight into complex, challenging, yet fascinating world of politics of rapprochement, reconciliation and reunification in two apparently different contexts: Polish-German and Inter-Korean relations. As the European consciousness in Central Europe matures, the accumulated Polish and German research concerning these issues could provide a valuable insight into political, social and economic processes beyond European dimension, in particular in East Asian, Korean context.

 

[[[separator]]]

 

Political developments in the Korean Peninsula almost regularly draw attention of the international community. The threat of nuclear conflict in the context of global powers interests' crossing at 38th parallel has been raising questions about possible trajectories of solving one of the last Cold War conflicts still persisting in the reality of a globalized world. Unfortunately, the discussions concerning possible ways to successfully deter and appease Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea seem to run parallel to political reality, which is sometimes very grim. The spike of nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches under the reign of Kim Dzong-Un and internal political problems of the Republic of Korea overshadow peaceful scenarios of reconciliation between Seoul and Pyongyang.

However, when it comes to untying political knots of reconciliation, despite the grim perspectives the results are sometimes surprisingly positive. The best examples are the German reunification and the Polish German reconciliation. To a large extent successful, despite obstacles and some issues still requiring a lot of political will and economic support to solve, they both act as a proof that genuine reconciliation is possible. The studies of 25 years of German-Polish relations provide an opportunity for practical application of reconciliation experiences in the Korean context with the potential benefit for analysis of the challenges in the South- North Korean relations and in the complex geopolitical situation of the Korean Peninsula. The Polish and German experiences of reunification, in the German case of East and West Germany and in the Polish case with Western Europe, and of reconciliation of the German and Polish nations, form a unique framework for studying the possible trajectories of rapprochement, reconciliation and reunification of both Koreas and in their neighborhood. As the European consciousness in Central Europe matures, the accumulated Polish and German research concerning these issues could provide a valuable insight into political, social and economic processes beyond the European dimension, in particular in the East Asian, Korean context. The presented collection of articles correlating the Polish-German reconciliation experiences with the situation in the Korean Peninsula is a fruit of scholarly passion of researchers of Catholic University of Eichstatt-Ingolstadt (KU), Germany, of Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), Poland, and of other researchers invited to join the Project. The goal of the publication is to provide readers with an insight into the complex and challenging, yet fascinating world of politics of rapprochement, reconciliation and reunification in two apparently different contexts: Polish-German and Inter-Korean relations. The outcome, two volumes of articles: The German-Polish Reconciliation Policies: Insights for the Koreas and The Korean Peninsula Unification Trajectories: Insights from Poland and Germany, combine Polish and German perspectives on reconciliation with Korean political reality.

Both volumes draw parallels between the political, economic and social situation of Poland and Germany. At the same time they uncover characteristics of possible trajectories of change on the Korean Peninsula. The authors combined patterns known from Polish-German relations as well as the East-West Germany reunification experiences and treated them as a reference for debating possible scenarios of change in the inter-Korean relations. The first volume emphasizes the experiences of the German-Polish rapprochement and reconciliation in the inter-Korean context. The other one discusses the possible applications of the German unification and Polish-European integration experiences in the Korean Peninsula geopolitical context.

The first volume: The German-Polish Reconciliation Policies: Insights for the Koreas and The Korean Peninsula Unification Trajectories: Insights from Poland and Germany, encompasses 6 articles.

The first article, by Klaus Stuwe (KU), discusses the role of confidence-building measures in reconciliation policies. German-Polish relations form a reference point for discussing the possible trajectories of change in the inter-Korean relations. The lesson of the Polish-German reconciliation is that the process of rapprochement and peace-building is not linear but full of twists; it includes both the progress and the setbacks. Thus, the peaceful end requires both the openness and trust in the long-term success on the one hand and the realistic understanding for the periodical deterioration of relations on the other.

The next article, by Piotr Ostaszewski (SGH), compares the German Democratic Republic and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea in terms of the German and Korean reunification potential. Based on extensive comparative analysis, he states that the German model remains the only real and tested unification option for the Koreas. The analogy has certain limitations, though. The most important one comes from the fact that the fall of East Germany was caused by international circumstances, the decomposition of the Eastern Block, while the most possible scenario for Koreas is North Koreas decomposition and a collapse of its system because of internal reasons. This makes predictions of the future of the Korean reunification on the basis of the German example more limited but also more realistic.

The third article, by Friedrich Kiessling (KU), presents a historical analysis of the Polish-German reconciliation process. The author, while emphasizing the numerous differences between the inter-Korean and the Polish-German relations, examines two key aspects of the rapprochement process between Germany and Poland: the symbolic gestures on the both sides of the iron curtain, and the small but consistent developments in international relations, which created a friendly environment when the opportunity for reconciliation emerged. The conclusions in context of the inter-Korean relations are not over-optimistic, though. It seems that as far as history-based scenarios are concerned, the most possible one is Detente of separate but not opposing camps.

The next article, by Katarzyna Pisarska (SGH), presents a policy analysis of a more recent period of the German-Polish reconciliation. She presents and analyses five patterns of reconciliation policy and explores their specific characteristics: addressing legacies of the past, robust political leadership, the civic dimension of the process, economic cooperation and supportive institutional setting. The author argues that the existence of these elements not only contributed to the success of the policy, but also makes it to a large extent transferable into international politics. However, she also points out that the positive effects of the policy are not irreversible.

The fifth article, by Tomasz Kamiński and Marcin Frenkel (University of Łódź), analyses an interesting dimension of the reconciliation process: the role of intellectual elites in setting the course for the rest of the society. The authors discuss how the Polish intellectuals created a space for social discourse on reconciliation between two extremely hostile nations. Of course the social structure makes analogies between Poland and Korea difficult. However, the point of the paper is that the intellectual capacity of the society to acknowledge historic opportunities, which in the future may be one of the most important elements of any reconciliation policy.

The final article of the volume, by Marta Pachocka (SGH), deals with the demographic dimension of the reunification process in Germany and potentially between the Koreas. The author identifies the demographic challenges that East and West Germany had to face in the nineties. While politically the unification occured relatively quickly, the social process of reunification is still underway. This leads to a conclusion that the inter-Korean situation, taking into account the longer time-period in question, may be even more challenging than the already difficult situation of the inter-German reunification of two differently governed societies.

The second volume: The Korean Peninsula Unification Trajectories: Insights from Poland and Germany, encompasses 6 articles.

The first one, by Klaus Brummer (KU), analyses opportunities for the development of a successful reconciliation policy in the case of the contemporary Koreas from the perspective of international relations. The preconditions for bilateral reconciliation and reconciliation through international integration seem to be similar, although in the case of the Koreas they do not exist. However, according to the author, this does not exclude the possibility of peaceful combination of bilateral efforts and of regional integration in the future. Taking into account the complex geopolitical situation of the Korean Peninsula, embedding the process of bilateral relations in regional integration could prove to be the most promising way to reorganize the political and economic reality of the Koreas.

The second article, by Krzysztof Kozłowski (SGH), presents an analysis of inter-Korean relations after the end of the Cold War taken from a game theory perspective. The economic analysis leads to surprising conclusions. According to the author, despite the periodical drastic deterioration of bilateral relations between both Koreas, their relations are amazingly stable. For various reasons discussed in the paper, the most appealing scenario to all the players is actually the short- term status quo, not any sort of long term change. However, the analysis does not exclude the black swan scenario: an unforeseeable but possible crisis caused by factors missed by the international community.

The third article, by Jeroen Van den Bosch (Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań), discusses the possible regime transitions scenarios in North Korea. Basing on extensive analysis of other totalitarian regimes the Author points out that in contrast to the cases of USSR or Peoples' Republic of China, which both have abandoned the personalist character after Stalin and Mao, North Korea remained personalist for three generations of leaders. The paper discusses not only the rea- sons why this happened, but also the possible consequences of such a situation in the future. It's worth noting that international communitys ability to influence them remains relatively limited.

The next article, by Marta Kosmala-Kozłowska (XXXX), debates the possible European contributions to the Korean reconciliation. The author concentrates her analysis on dialogical diplomatic approach towards the potential reengagement of the North Korea in denuclearization negotiations, using platforms like ASEM. The paper tackles issues like the EU factual and potential diplomatic activities in the field and the EU ability to use ASEAN and ASEM as diplomatic platforms. She points out that the most important first step is to establish stable and permanent communication channels and to acknowledge that North Korea is sustainable as a state to a greater extent than many Western countries assume.

The fifth article, by Monika Krukowska (SGH), discusses another diplomatic issue important in the context of geopolitical situation of the Korean Peninsula: the relations of the South and the North Korea with People's Republic of China. After a spike of nuclear and missile tests conducted by Kim Jong-Un, PRC seems to be reorienting its approach to North Korea. This is an important development, as the PRC remains the only international actor with substantial influence on decisions taken by North Korean leadership. However, the question remains whether China, as a rising leader in East and South East Asia, is willing to engage in a sustainable way in the denuclearization and demilitarization process of the Korean Peninsula.

The final article, by Jan Misiuna (SGH), closes the volume with the question how long would it take for the Koreas to reunite, if a peaceful unification scenario was to be realized. The analysis is based on historic experiences of reunification of US in 19th century, Poland after the partitions and Germany after the end of the Cold War. Based on these examples, it seems that at the current stage, whatever efforts were to be taken, the experience of the division would still be permanent. Interestingly, the economic disparity does not seem to be the most difficult chal­lenge. Psychological and social divergences already present between Koreans to the north and to the south of the 38 parallel are far more important.

The publication was promoted with two scientific joint-seminars organized by the Catholic University of Eichstatt-Ingolstadt and the Warsaw School of Eco- nomics. The first one concerned the application of the Polish-German rapprochement experiences in the Korean context. Conducted in Warsaw, it marked the official beginning of common studies. The second one concerned the application of the East-West Germany unification and of Poland's integration with the EU in the Korean Peninsula context. Conducted in Eichstatt, it created an opportunity to verify and to discuss the earlier findings of the Polish and the German research teams. Together they provided an opportunity to promote Polish-German cooperation in Asian Studies and to present recommendations how to use Ger- man-Polish experiences to tackle the challenge of the Korean unification and its geopolitical consequences. Both, as well as the whole project, would not have been possible without the generous support and the sincere assistance of the Foundation for Polish-German Cooperation (Fundacja Współpracy Polsko-Niemieckiej / Stiftung Fur Deutsch-Polnische Zusammenarbeit).The editors - Krzysztof Kozłowski and Klaus Stuwe - would like to thank the Authors, the Academies and the Foundation for their involvement in the project.

Krzysztof Kozłowski & Klaus Stuwe

 

 

[[[separator]]]

 

Introduction7

Klaus Brummer

IR Perspectives on International Reconciliation: Insights for the Koreas

 

Krzysztof Kozłowski

Post-Cold War Inter Korean Relations in Games Theory Perspective

 

Jeroen Van den Bosch

Irreversible Regime Transitions: The Impact of Hereditary Succession and Personalist Rule in North Korea

 

Marta Kosmala-Kozłowska

European Contributions to Korean Reconciliation through the ASEM Process

 

Monika Krukowska

China Versus Two Koreas: Aspects of Bilateral Relations

 

Jan Misiuna

Persisting Differences: 70 Years of Korean Division or How Long Will It Take for the Koreas to Fully Reunite?

 

Opis

Wydanie: I
Rok wydania: 2017
Wydawnictwo: Oficyna Wydawnicza
Oprawa: miękka
Format: B5
Liczba stron: 148

 

The presented collection of articles correlating the Polish-German reconciliation experiences with the situation in the Korean Peninsula, is a fruit of scholarly passion of researchers of Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt (KU), Germany, and of Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), Poland, and other researchers invited to join the Project. The goal of the publication is to provide readers with an insight into complex, challenging, yet fascinating world of politics of rapprochement, reconciliation and reunification in two apparently different contexts: Polish-German and Inter-Korean relations. As the European consciousness in Central Europe matures, the accumulated Polish and German research concerning these issues could provide a valuable insight into political, social and economic processes beyond European dimension, in particular in East Asian, Korean context.

 

Wstęp

 

Political developments in the Korean Peninsula almost regularly draw attention of the international community. The threat of nuclear conflict in the context of global powers interests' crossing at 38th parallel has been raising questions about possible trajectories of solving one of the last Cold War conflicts still persisting in the reality of a globalized world. Unfortunately, the discussions concerning possible ways to successfully deter and appease Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea seem to run parallel to political reality, which is sometimes very grim. The spike of nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches under the reign of Kim Dzong-Un and internal political problems of the Republic of Korea overshadow peaceful scenarios of reconciliation between Seoul and Pyongyang.

However, when it comes to untying political knots of reconciliation, despite the grim perspectives the results are sometimes surprisingly positive. The best examples are the German reunification and the Polish German reconciliation. To a large extent successful, despite obstacles and some issues still requiring a lot of political will and economic support to solve, they both act as a proof that genuine reconciliation is possible. The studies of 25 years of German-Polish relations provide an opportunity for practical application of reconciliation experiences in the Korean context with the potential benefit for analysis of the challenges in the South- North Korean relations and in the complex geopolitical situation of the Korean Peninsula. The Polish and German experiences of reunification, in the German case of East and West Germany and in the Polish case with Western Europe, and of reconciliation of the German and Polish nations, form a unique framework for studying the possible trajectories of rapprochement, reconciliation and reunification of both Koreas and in their neighborhood. As the European consciousness in Central Europe matures, the accumulated Polish and German research concerning these issues could provide a valuable insight into political, social and economic processes beyond the European dimension, in particular in the East Asian, Korean context. The presented collection of articles correlating the Polish-German reconciliation experiences with the situation in the Korean Peninsula is a fruit of scholarly passion of researchers of Catholic University of Eichstatt-Ingolstadt (KU), Germany, of Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), Poland, and of other researchers invited to join the Project. The goal of the publication is to provide readers with an insight into the complex and challenging, yet fascinating world of politics of rapprochement, reconciliation and reunification in two apparently different contexts: Polish-German and Inter-Korean relations. The outcome, two volumes of articles: The German-Polish Reconciliation Policies: Insights for the Koreas and The Korean Peninsula Unification Trajectories: Insights from Poland and Germany, combine Polish and German perspectives on reconciliation with Korean political reality.

Both volumes draw parallels between the political, economic and social situation of Poland and Germany. At the same time they uncover characteristics of possible trajectories of change on the Korean Peninsula. The authors combined patterns known from Polish-German relations as well as the East-West Germany reunification experiences and treated them as a reference for debating possible scenarios of change in the inter-Korean relations. The first volume emphasizes the experiences of the German-Polish rapprochement and reconciliation in the inter-Korean context. The other one discusses the possible applications of the German unification and Polish-European integration experiences in the Korean Peninsula geopolitical context.

The first volume: The German-Polish Reconciliation Policies: Insights for the Koreas and The Korean Peninsula Unification Trajectories: Insights from Poland and Germany, encompasses 6 articles.

The first article, by Klaus Stuwe (KU), discusses the role of confidence-building measures in reconciliation policies. German-Polish relations form a reference point for discussing the possible trajectories of change in the inter-Korean relations. The lesson of the Polish-German reconciliation is that the process of rapprochement and peace-building is not linear but full of twists; it includes both the progress and the setbacks. Thus, the peaceful end requires both the openness and trust in the long-term success on the one hand and the realistic understanding for the periodical deterioration of relations on the other.

The next article, by Piotr Ostaszewski (SGH), compares the German Democratic Republic and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea in terms of the German and Korean reunification potential. Based on extensive comparative analysis, he states that the German model remains the only real and tested unification option for the Koreas. The analogy has certain limitations, though. The most important one comes from the fact that the fall of East Germany was caused by international circumstances, the decomposition of the Eastern Block, while the most possible scenario for Koreas is North Koreas decomposition and a collapse of its system because of internal reasons. This makes predictions of the future of the Korean reunification on the basis of the German example more limited but also more realistic.

The third article, by Friedrich Kiessling (KU), presents a historical analysis of the Polish-German reconciliation process. The author, while emphasizing the numerous differences between the inter-Korean and the Polish-German relations, examines two key aspects of the rapprochement process between Germany and Poland: the symbolic gestures on the both sides of the iron curtain, and the small but consistent developments in international relations, which created a friendly environment when the opportunity for reconciliation emerged. The conclusions in context of the inter-Korean relations are not over-optimistic, though. It seems that as far as history-based scenarios are concerned, the most possible one is Detente of separate but not opposing camps.

The next article, by Katarzyna Pisarska (SGH), presents a policy analysis of a more recent period of the German-Polish reconciliation. She presents and analyses five patterns of reconciliation policy and explores their specific characteristics: addressing legacies of the past, robust political leadership, the civic dimension of the process, economic cooperation and supportive institutional setting. The author argues that the existence of these elements not only contributed to the success of the policy, but also makes it to a large extent transferable into international politics. However, she also points out that the positive effects of the policy are not irreversible.

The fifth article, by Tomasz Kamiński and Marcin Frenkel (University of Łódź), analyses an interesting dimension of the reconciliation process: the role of intellectual elites in setting the course for the rest of the society. The authors discuss how the Polish intellectuals created a space for social discourse on reconciliation between two extremely hostile nations. Of course the social structure makes analogies between Poland and Korea difficult. However, the point of the paper is that the intellectual capacity of the society to acknowledge historic opportunities, which in the future may be one of the most important elements of any reconciliation policy.

The final article of the volume, by Marta Pachocka (SGH), deals with the demographic dimension of the reunification process in Germany and potentially between the Koreas. The author identifies the demographic challenges that East and West Germany had to face in the nineties. While politically the unification occured relatively quickly, the social process of reunification is still underway. This leads to a conclusion that the inter-Korean situation, taking into account the longer time-period in question, may be even more challenging than the already difficult situation of the inter-German reunification of two differently governed societies.

The second volume: The Korean Peninsula Unification Trajectories: Insights from Poland and Germany, encompasses 6 articles.

The first one, by Klaus Brummer (KU), analyses opportunities for the development of a successful reconciliation policy in the case of the contemporary Koreas from the perspective of international relations. The preconditions for bilateral reconciliation and reconciliation through international integration seem to be similar, although in the case of the Koreas they do not exist. However, according to the author, this does not exclude the possibility of peaceful combination of bilateral efforts and of regional integration in the future. Taking into account the complex geopolitical situation of the Korean Peninsula, embedding the process of bilateral relations in regional integration could prove to be the most promising way to reorganize the political and economic reality of the Koreas.

The second article, by Krzysztof Kozłowski (SGH), presents an analysis of inter-Korean relations after the end of the Cold War taken from a game theory perspective. The economic analysis leads to surprising conclusions. According to the author, despite the periodical drastic deterioration of bilateral relations between both Koreas, their relations are amazingly stable. For various reasons discussed in the paper, the most appealing scenario to all the players is actually the short- term status quo, not any sort of long term change. However, the analysis does not exclude the black swan scenario: an unforeseeable but possible crisis caused by factors missed by the international community.

The third article, by Jeroen Van den Bosch (Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań), discusses the possible regime transitions scenarios in North Korea. Basing on extensive analysis of other totalitarian regimes the Author points out that in contrast to the cases of USSR or Peoples' Republic of China, which both have abandoned the personalist character after Stalin and Mao, North Korea remained personalist for three generations of leaders. The paper discusses not only the rea- sons why this happened, but also the possible consequences of such a situation in the future. It's worth noting that international communitys ability to influence them remains relatively limited.

The next article, by Marta Kosmala-Kozłowska (XXXX), debates the possible European contributions to the Korean reconciliation. The author concentrates her analysis on dialogical diplomatic approach towards the potential reengagement of the North Korea in denuclearization negotiations, using platforms like ASEM. The paper tackles issues like the EU factual and potential diplomatic activities in the field and the EU ability to use ASEAN and ASEM as diplomatic platforms. She points out that the most important first step is to establish stable and permanent communication channels and to acknowledge that North Korea is sustainable as a state to a greater extent than many Western countries assume.

The fifth article, by Monika Krukowska (SGH), discusses another diplomatic issue important in the context of geopolitical situation of the Korean Peninsula: the relations of the South and the North Korea with People's Republic of China. After a spike of nuclear and missile tests conducted by Kim Jong-Un, PRC seems to be reorienting its approach to North Korea. This is an important development, as the PRC remains the only international actor with substantial influence on decisions taken by North Korean leadership. However, the question remains whether China, as a rising leader in East and South East Asia, is willing to engage in a sustainable way in the denuclearization and demilitarization process of the Korean Peninsula.

The final article, by Jan Misiuna (SGH), closes the volume with the question how long would it take for the Koreas to reunite, if a peaceful unification scenario was to be realized. The analysis is based on historic experiences of reunification of US in 19th century, Poland after the partitions and Germany after the end of the Cold War. Based on these examples, it seems that at the current stage, whatever efforts were to be taken, the experience of the division would still be permanent. Interestingly, the economic disparity does not seem to be the most difficult chal­lenge. Psychological and social divergences already present between Koreans to the north and to the south of the 38 parallel are far more important.

The publication was promoted with two scientific joint-seminars organized by the Catholic University of Eichstatt-Ingolstadt and the Warsaw School of Eco- nomics. The first one concerned the application of the Polish-German rapprochement experiences in the Korean context. Conducted in Warsaw, it marked the official beginning of common studies. The second one concerned the application of the East-West Germany unification and of Poland's integration with the EU in the Korean Peninsula context. Conducted in Eichstatt, it created an opportunity to verify and to discuss the earlier findings of the Polish and the German research teams. Together they provided an opportunity to promote Polish-German cooperation in Asian Studies and to present recommendations how to use Ger- man-Polish experiences to tackle the challenge of the Korean unification and its geopolitical consequences. Both, as well as the whole project, would not have been possible without the generous support and the sincere assistance of the Foundation for Polish-German Cooperation (Fundacja Współpracy Polsko-Niemieckiej / Stiftung Fur Deutsch-Polnische Zusammenarbeit).The editors - Krzysztof Kozłowski and Klaus Stuwe - would like to thank the Authors, the Academies and the Foundation for their involvement in the project.

Krzysztof Kozłowski & Klaus Stuwe

 

 

Spis treści

 

Introduction7

Klaus Brummer

IR Perspectives on International Reconciliation: Insights for the Koreas

 

Krzysztof Kozłowski

Post-Cold War Inter Korean Relations in Games Theory Perspective

 

Jeroen Van den Bosch

Irreversible Regime Transitions: The Impact of Hereditary Succession and Personalist Rule in North Korea

 

Marta Kosmala-Kozłowska

European Contributions to Korean Reconciliation through the ASEM Process

 

Monika Krukowska

China Versus Two Koreas: Aspects of Bilateral Relations

 

Jan Misiuna

Persisting Differences: 70 Years of Korean Division or How Long Will It Take for the Koreas to Fully Reunite?

 

Opinie

Twoja ocena:
Wydanie: I
Rok wydania: 2017
Wydawnictwo: Oficyna Wydawnicza
Oprawa: miękka
Format: B5
Liczba stron: 148

 

The presented collection of articles correlating the Polish-German reconciliation experiences with the situation in the Korean Peninsula, is a fruit of scholarly passion of researchers of Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt (KU), Germany, and of Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), Poland, and other researchers invited to join the Project. The goal of the publication is to provide readers with an insight into complex, challenging, yet fascinating world of politics of rapprochement, reconciliation and reunification in two apparently different contexts: Polish-German and Inter-Korean relations. As the European consciousness in Central Europe matures, the accumulated Polish and German research concerning these issues could provide a valuable insight into political, social and economic processes beyond European dimension, in particular in East Asian, Korean context.

 

 

Political developments in the Korean Peninsula almost regularly draw attention of the international community. The threat of nuclear conflict in the context of global powers interests' crossing at 38th parallel has been raising questions about possible trajectories of solving one of the last Cold War conflicts still persisting in the reality of a globalized world. Unfortunately, the discussions concerning possible ways to successfully deter and appease Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea seem to run parallel to political reality, which is sometimes very grim. The spike of nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches under the reign of Kim Dzong-Un and internal political problems of the Republic of Korea overshadow peaceful scenarios of reconciliation between Seoul and Pyongyang.

However, when it comes to untying political knots of reconciliation, despite the grim perspectives the results are sometimes surprisingly positive. The best examples are the German reunification and the Polish German reconciliation. To a large extent successful, despite obstacles and some issues still requiring a lot of political will and economic support to solve, they both act as a proof that genuine reconciliation is possible. The studies of 25 years of German-Polish relations provide an opportunity for practical application of reconciliation experiences in the Korean context with the potential benefit for analysis of the challenges in the South- North Korean relations and in the complex geopolitical situation of the Korean Peninsula. The Polish and German experiences of reunification, in the German case of East and West Germany and in the Polish case with Western Europe, and of reconciliation of the German and Polish nations, form a unique framework for studying the possible trajectories of rapprochement, reconciliation and reunification of both Koreas and in their neighborhood. As the European consciousness in Central Europe matures, the accumulated Polish and German research concerning these issues could provide a valuable insight into political, social and economic processes beyond the European dimension, in particular in the East Asian, Korean context. The presented collection of articles correlating the Polish-German reconciliation experiences with the situation in the Korean Peninsula is a fruit of scholarly passion of researchers of Catholic University of Eichstatt-Ingolstadt (KU), Germany, of Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), Poland, and of other researchers invited to join the Project. The goal of the publication is to provide readers with an insight into the complex and challenging, yet fascinating world of politics of rapprochement, reconciliation and reunification in two apparently different contexts: Polish-German and Inter-Korean relations. The outcome, two volumes of articles: The German-Polish Reconciliation Policies: Insights for the Koreas and The Korean Peninsula Unification Trajectories: Insights from Poland and Germany, combine Polish and German perspectives on reconciliation with Korean political reality.

Both volumes draw parallels between the political, economic and social situation of Poland and Germany. At the same time they uncover characteristics of possible trajectories of change on the Korean Peninsula. The authors combined patterns known from Polish-German relations as well as the East-West Germany reunification experiences and treated them as a reference for debating possible scenarios of change in the inter-Korean relations. The first volume emphasizes the experiences of the German-Polish rapprochement and reconciliation in the inter-Korean context. The other one discusses the possible applications of the German unification and Polish-European integration experiences in the Korean Peninsula geopolitical context.

The first volume: The German-Polish Reconciliation Policies: Insights for the Koreas and The Korean Peninsula Unification Trajectories: Insights from Poland and Germany, encompasses 6 articles.

The first article, by Klaus Stuwe (KU), discusses the role of confidence-building measures in reconciliation policies. German-Polish relations form a reference point for discussing the possible trajectories of change in the inter-Korean relations. The lesson of the Polish-German reconciliation is that the process of rapprochement and peace-building is not linear but full of twists; it includes both the progress and the setbacks. Thus, the peaceful end requires both the openness and trust in the long-term success on the one hand and the realistic understanding for the periodical deterioration of relations on the other.

The next article, by Piotr Ostaszewski (SGH), compares the German Democratic Republic and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea in terms of the German and Korean reunification potential. Based on extensive comparative analysis, he states that the German model remains the only real and tested unification option for the Koreas. The analogy has certain limitations, though. The most important one comes from the fact that the fall of East Germany was caused by international circumstances, the decomposition of the Eastern Block, while the most possible scenario for Koreas is North Koreas decomposition and a collapse of its system because of internal reasons. This makes predictions of the future of the Korean reunification on the basis of the German example more limited but also more realistic.

The third article, by Friedrich Kiessling (KU), presents a historical analysis of the Polish-German reconciliation process. The author, while emphasizing the numerous differences between the inter-Korean and the Polish-German relations, examines two key aspects of the rapprochement process between Germany and Poland: the symbolic gestures on the both sides of the iron curtain, and the small but consistent developments in international relations, which created a friendly environment when the opportunity for reconciliation emerged. The conclusions in context of the inter-Korean relations are not over-optimistic, though. It seems that as far as history-based scenarios are concerned, the most possible one is Detente of separate but not opposing camps.

The next article, by Katarzyna Pisarska (SGH), presents a policy analysis of a more recent period of the German-Polish reconciliation. She presents and analyses five patterns of reconciliation policy and explores their specific characteristics: addressing legacies of the past, robust political leadership, the civic dimension of the process, economic cooperation and supportive institutional setting. The author argues that the existence of these elements not only contributed to the success of the policy, but also makes it to a large extent transferable into international politics. However, she also points out that the positive effects of the policy are not irreversible.

The fifth article, by Tomasz Kamiński and Marcin Frenkel (University of Łódź), analyses an interesting dimension of the reconciliation process: the role of intellectual elites in setting the course for the rest of the society. The authors discuss how the Polish intellectuals created a space for social discourse on reconciliation between two extremely hostile nations. Of course the social structure makes analogies between Poland and Korea difficult. However, the point of the paper is that the intellectual capacity of the society to acknowledge historic opportunities, which in the future may be one of the most important elements of any reconciliation policy.

The final article of the volume, by Marta Pachocka (SGH), deals with the demographic dimension of the reunification process in Germany and potentially between the Koreas. The author identifies the demographic challenges that East and West Germany had to face in the nineties. While politically the unification occured relatively quickly, the social process of reunification is still underway. This leads to a conclusion that the inter-Korean situation, taking into account the longer time-period in question, may be even more challenging than the already difficult situation of the inter-German reunification of two differently governed societies.

The second volume: The Korean Peninsula Unification Trajectories: Insights from Poland and Germany, encompasses 6 articles.

The first one, by Klaus Brummer (KU), analyses opportunities for the development of a successful reconciliation policy in the case of the contemporary Koreas from the perspective of international relations. The preconditions for bilateral reconciliation and reconciliation through international integration seem to be similar, although in the case of the Koreas they do not exist. However, according to the author, this does not exclude the possibility of peaceful combination of bilateral efforts and of regional integration in the future. Taking into account the complex geopolitical situation of the Korean Peninsula, embedding the process of bilateral relations in regional integration could prove to be the most promising way to reorganize the political and economic reality of the Koreas.

The second article, by Krzysztof Kozłowski (SGH), presents an analysis of inter-Korean relations after the end of the Cold War taken from a game theory perspective. The economic analysis leads to surprising conclusions. According to the author, despite the periodical drastic deterioration of bilateral relations between both Koreas, their relations are amazingly stable. For various reasons discussed in the paper, the most appealing scenario to all the players is actually the short- term status quo, not any sort of long term change. However, the analysis does not exclude the black swan scenario: an unforeseeable but possible crisis caused by factors missed by the international community.

The third article, by Jeroen Van den Bosch (Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań), discusses the possible regime transitions scenarios in North Korea. Basing on extensive analysis of other totalitarian regimes the Author points out that in contrast to the cases of USSR or Peoples' Republic of China, which both have abandoned the personalist character after Stalin and Mao, North Korea remained personalist for three generations of leaders. The paper discusses not only the rea- sons why this happened, but also the possible consequences of such a situation in the future. It's worth noting that international communitys ability to influence them remains relatively limited.

The next article, by Marta Kosmala-Kozłowska (XXXX), debates the possible European contributions to the Korean reconciliation. The author concentrates her analysis on dialogical diplomatic approach towards the potential reengagement of the North Korea in denuclearization negotiations, using platforms like ASEM. The paper tackles issues like the EU factual and potential diplomatic activities in the field and the EU ability to use ASEAN and ASEM as diplomatic platforms. She points out that the most important first step is to establish stable and permanent communication channels and to acknowledge that North Korea is sustainable as a state to a greater extent than many Western countries assume.

The fifth article, by Monika Krukowska (SGH), discusses another diplomatic issue important in the context of geopolitical situation of the Korean Peninsula: the relations of the South and the North Korea with People's Republic of China. After a spike of nuclear and missile tests conducted by Kim Jong-Un, PRC seems to be reorienting its approach to North Korea. This is an important development, as the PRC remains the only international actor with substantial influence on decisions taken by North Korean leadership. However, the question remains whether China, as a rising leader in East and South East Asia, is willing to engage in a sustainable way in the denuclearization and demilitarization process of the Korean Peninsula.

The final article, by Jan Misiuna (SGH), closes the volume with the question how long would it take for the Koreas to reunite, if a peaceful unification scenario was to be realized. The analysis is based on historic experiences of reunification of US in 19th century, Poland after the partitions and Germany after the end of the Cold War. Based on these examples, it seems that at the current stage, whatever efforts were to be taken, the experience of the division would still be permanent. Interestingly, the economic disparity does not seem to be the most difficult chal­lenge. Psychological and social divergences already present between Koreans to the north and to the south of the 38 parallel are far more important.

The publication was promoted with two scientific joint-seminars organized by the Catholic University of Eichstatt-Ingolstadt and the Warsaw School of Eco- nomics. The first one concerned the application of the Polish-German rapprochement experiences in the Korean context. Conducted in Warsaw, it marked the official beginning of common studies. The second one concerned the application of the East-West Germany unification and of Poland's integration with the EU in the Korean Peninsula context. Conducted in Eichstatt, it created an opportunity to verify and to discuss the earlier findings of the Polish and the German research teams. Together they provided an opportunity to promote Polish-German cooperation in Asian Studies and to present recommendations how to use Ger- man-Polish experiences to tackle the challenge of the Korean unification and its geopolitical consequences. Both, as well as the whole project, would not have been possible without the generous support and the sincere assistance of the Foundation for Polish-German Cooperation (Fundacja Współpracy Polsko-Niemieckiej / Stiftung Fur Deutsch-Polnische Zusammenarbeit).The editors - Krzysztof Kozłowski and Klaus Stuwe - would like to thank the Authors, the Academies and the Foundation for their involvement in the project.

Krzysztof Kozłowski & Klaus Stuwe

 

 

 

Introduction7

Klaus Brummer

IR Perspectives on International Reconciliation: Insights for the Koreas

 

Krzysztof Kozłowski

Post-Cold War Inter Korean Relations in Games Theory Perspective

 

Jeroen Van den Bosch

Irreversible Regime Transitions: The Impact of Hereditary Succession and Personalist Rule in North Korea

 

Marta Kosmala-Kozłowska

European Contributions to Korean Reconciliation through the ASEM Process

 

Monika Krukowska

China Versus Two Koreas: Aspects of Bilateral Relations

 

Jan Misiuna

Persisting Differences: 70 Years of Korean Division or How Long Will It Take for the Koreas to Fully Reunite?

 

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